Europe’s response to asylum seekers: measuring EU Member States’ Capability to grant international protection (2010-2021)

Asylum applications in EU Member States (MS) have shown significant disparities over the past decade, marked by uneven distribution of refugee responsibilities, a solidarity deficit, and divergent protection systems. This study analyses Eurostat data on asylum applications and decisions from 26 EU MS (2010–2021), divided into three sub-periods (2010–2013, 2014–2017, 2018–2021), to evaluate State capability to grant international protection and identify factors associated with the Rate of International Protection (RIP). RIP, an original measure, scales the recognition of protection status relative to population size, facilitating cross-country comparisons. Decomposing RIP into three components—impact of protection applications, administrative effectiveness, and State willingness—reveals distinct national patterns. Symmetric multivariate analyses identify clusters of countries with similar protection capabilities and highlight shifts during 2015–2016, the peak of the “refugee crisis.” Results show that over half of EU MS faced administrative ineffectiveness or restrictive practices from 2014 to 2017, while Sweden, Germany, Austria, and Malta demonstrated proactive approaches in granting protection. A regression model confirms associations between selected destination country factors and asylum-granting capabilities, with distance as a negative influence. This study provides insights into structural, regional and political influences shaping MS asylum policies over time.