Climate Change, Agricultural Productivity and Migration: A Theoretial and Empirical Analysis with a Focus on the Mediterranean

Climate change poses significant challenges for agricultural productivity and human mobility. This paper examines the relationship between climate change, agricultural productivity and migration, with a focus on the Mediterranean region. Using a new economic geography (NEG) model, we analyse how climate-induced shifts in agricultural productivity affect the spatial distribution of economic activity and labour mobility. The theoretical framework suggests that regions experiencing a decline in agricultural productivity due to climate change may experience a migration of manufacturing workers. The empirical results support this theory, revealing a negative relationship between agricultural productivity and out-migration (people moving outside the Mediterranean region).