Wind Speed Extreme Quantiles Estimation

The paper deals with the characterization of extreme wind speed (WS) quantiles, whose values and estimates are very sensitive to the assumed distributional form. This is a crucial issue not only for wind energy production assessment, but also in risk and reliability analysis. For the above purposes, the Lomax model is theoretically deduced and analysed: this model, indeed, well represents the typical heavy tails in WS probabilistic distributions arising from field data. A proper Bayes approach for the estimation of both the Lomax survivor function and of the above quantiles is analyzed. A large set of numerical simulations illustrates excellent results in terms of efficiency of the estimates and feasibility of the proposed approach, based upon a novel way to build the prior distribution.