A sensitivity analysis of recovery solutions in the case of rail disruption management

In this paper, we propose a sensitivity analysis for evaluating the effectiveness of recovery solutions in the case of disturbed rail operations. Indeed, when failures or breakdowns occur during daily service, new strategies have to be implemented so as to react appropriately and re-establish ordinary conditions as rapidly as possible. In this context, the use of rail simulation is vital: for each intervention strategy it provides the evaluation of interactions and performance analysis prior to application of corrective action. However, in most cases, simulation tasks are deterministic and fail to allow for the stochastic distribution of train performance and delays. Hence the strategies adopted might not be robust enough to ensure effectiveness of the intervention. We therefore propose an off-line procedure for disruption management based on a microscopic and stochastic rail simulation which considers both service operation and travel demand. An application on a real metro line in Naples (Italy) shows the benefits of the proposed approach in terms of service quality.