The paper compares the findings provided by empirical and physically-based models in estimating future evolutions in landslide occurrence as a consequence of the ongoing Climate Change. As test case, the phenomena affecting pyroclastic covers on Lattari Mts. (Campania Region) are considered. Simulation chains developed for both the approaches, pros and cons are carefully displayed pointing out the uncertainties currently associated to projections and the main gaps to bridge. Whatever the approach, an increase is expected but the relative magnitude and the evolution is deeply influenced by impact tools beyond the selected climate projections and concentration scenarios
Assessing Future Variations in Landslide Occurrence Due to Climate Changes: Insights from an Italian Test Case / Rianna, G.; Reder, A.; Pagano, L.; Mercogliano, A. - 40:(2020), pp. 255-264. (Intervento presentato al convegno National Conference of the Researchers of Geotechnical Engineering CNRIG 2019: Geotechnical Research for Land Protection and Development tenutosi a Lecco nel 3-5 luglio 2019) [10.1007/978-3-030-21359-6_27].
Assessing Future Variations in Landslide Occurrence Due to Climate Changes: Insights from an Italian Test Case
Pagano L.;
2020
Abstract
The paper compares the findings provided by empirical and physically-based models in estimating future evolutions in landslide occurrence as a consequence of the ongoing Climate Change. As test case, the phenomena affecting pyroclastic covers on Lattari Mts. (Campania Region) are considered. Simulation chains developed for both the approaches, pros and cons are carefully displayed pointing out the uncertainties currently associated to projections and the main gaps to bridge. Whatever the approach, an increase is expected but the relative magnitude and the evolution is deeply influenced by impact tools beyond the selected climate projections and concentration scenariosI documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
