Explaining voting behaviour in the 2016 Italian constitutional referendum.

At the end of 2016, a crucial constitutional reform was rejected by referendum in Italy. The vote, coming after the UK’s European membership referendum and the US presidential election, may have significant implications for both Italy and the European Union. The object of this paper is to investigate whether and to what extent socio-economic, demographic and political factors influenced voting behaviour. Our analysis shows that political and socio-economic variables were the main drivers of the referendum result. Demographic variables had a weaker effect. These findings suggest that the merit of the constitutional reform proposal had little relevance in explaining voting behaviour. The political reasons were common to the whole country. Other determinants of the referendum outcome varied in different geographical areas. In particular, demographic variables were more important in Northern and Central Italy. Socio-economic aspects were less relevant, although statistically significant, in the South.