This research aims at understanding and analyzing the possible effect of climate change on the seasonal rainfall regime over Italy. First, rainfall patterns are identified by applying a clustering procedure based on the Self-Organizing Map, by adopting and comparing the results of different gridded datasets describing current climate (1981-2010). Second, for the identified clusters the impact of climate change in the near (2021-2050) and the far future (2051-2080) is assessed by employing an ensemble of bias-Adjusted EUROCORDEX climate projections under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. The results of this study show that, for the considered models' ensemble, a significant decrease in cumulative rainfall values should be expected in the future, reflecting in a decrease in monthly values across all the seasons.
Future rainfall scenarios for the assessment of water availability in Italy / Padulano, R.; Cesare Lama, G. F.; Rianna, G.; Santini, M.; Mancini, M.; Stojiljkovic, M.. - (2020), pp. 241-246. ( 3rd IEEE International Workshop on Metrology for Agriculture and Forestry, MetroAgriFor 2020 University of Trento, ita 2020) [10.1109/MetroAgriFor50201.2020.9277599].
Future rainfall scenarios for the assessment of water availability in Italy
Padulano R.;Rianna G.;
2020
Abstract
This research aims at understanding and analyzing the possible effect of climate change on the seasonal rainfall regime over Italy. First, rainfall patterns are identified by applying a clustering procedure based on the Self-Organizing Map, by adopting and comparing the results of different gridded datasets describing current climate (1981-2010). Second, for the identified clusters the impact of climate change in the near (2021-2050) and the far future (2051-2080) is assessed by employing an ensemble of bias-Adjusted EUROCORDEX climate projections under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. The results of this study show that, for the considered models' ensemble, a significant decrease in cumulative rainfall values should be expected in the future, reflecting in a decrease in monthly values across all the seasons.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
