In this work, the effect of using an ensemble of precipitation projections for flood impact analysis in a climate change perspective is shown and discussed. An ensemble of 19 projections (for future time horizon 2071-2100 under IPCC -CMIP5 RCP 4.5 and 8.5 greenhouse gas concentration pathway) coming from different EURO-CORDEX members, suitably post-processed to remove systematic biases, are considered as input for flood modelling, which is performed by using CADDIES Caflood, a free grid-based software based on Cellular Automata. The propagation of precipitation projections variability to flood-related outputs is assessed, focusing primarily on lumped flood indicators, such as total flooded area and flood volumes, but also addressing statistical features describing the distribution of flood depth and velocity, such as the mean and standard deviation. The proposed methodology can be applied in the analysis of river/pluvial flooding indifferently, but it is discussed here only for the administrative unit of the City of Naples (Italy).
Influence of EURO-CORDEX ensemble on lumped flood impact indicators: A case study / Padulano, R.; Rianna, G.; Mercogliano, P.; Costabile, P.; Costanzo, C.; Del Giudice, G.. - (2024), pp. 1000-1007. (Intervento presentato al convegno 11th International Conference on Fluvial Hydraulics, River Flow 2022 tenutosi a KINGSTON AND OTTAWA, CANADA nel 8-10 NOVEMBER 2022) [10.1201/9781003323037-134].
Influence of EURO-CORDEX ensemble on lumped flood impact indicators: A case study
Padulano, R.
Primo
;Del Giudice, G.Ultimo
Supervision
2024
Abstract
In this work, the effect of using an ensemble of precipitation projections for flood impact analysis in a climate change perspective is shown and discussed. An ensemble of 19 projections (for future time horizon 2071-2100 under IPCC -CMIP5 RCP 4.5 and 8.5 greenhouse gas concentration pathway) coming from different EURO-CORDEX members, suitably post-processed to remove systematic biases, are considered as input for flood modelling, which is performed by using CADDIES Caflood, a free grid-based software based on Cellular Automata. The propagation of precipitation projections variability to flood-related outputs is assessed, focusing primarily on lumped flood indicators, such as total flooded area and flood volumes, but also addressing statistical features describing the distribution of flood depth and velocity, such as the mean and standard deviation. The proposed methodology can be applied in the analysis of river/pluvial flooding indifferently, but it is discussed here only for the administrative unit of the City of Naples (Italy).I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
