Integrating Pertupation-Aware Backwards Propagation and Fragment Characterization for Improved Fragmentation Detection and Parent Identification

This paper proposes a methodology to enhance fragmentation detection and parent object identification in Earth orbit. The approach integrates semi-analytical ballistic coefficient estimation with a propagation error model based on differential orbital parameters. These improvements refine the input conditions used in one of several close approach-based methods found in the literature, which use this common technique to identify the orbital revolution during which the fragmentation event likely occurred. The framework is applicable to both breakup and satellite release scenarios. Validation through real-world events demonstrates the method’s effectiveness in improving temporal accuracy and object association for Space Situational Awareness.