An integrated multidimensional risk framework for volcanic hazard zones: insights from Mt. Vesuvius, Italy

Mt. Vesuvius, located in Campania Region (Southern Italy), is considered one of the world’s most dangerous volcanoes due to its probability of future explosive eruptions in a densely populated area. When large populations or significant assets are exposed to volcanic hazards and exhibit high vulnerability, the potential for disaster increases. Consequently, combining volcanic hazard with demographic, social and building characteristics becomes essential to manage disasters. The approach presented in this work in based on integrated multidimensional and multisource framework aimed to risk analysis. It integrates diverse geospatial datasets, by exploring the relationship between long-term volcanic hazard (pyroclastic density currents), human population features (population exposure and social vulnerability) and building characteristics (building exposure and physical vulnerability). The challenge of this approach is to standardize the metrics belonging to physical hazard with those of potential vulnerability and exposure (which derived from different measures), to investigate the volcanic risk spatial distribution. By using Geographic Information System tools and statistical analyses, the approach identifies and prioritizes areas requiring focused mitigation strategies, at the Enumeration Area level. The resulting risk map highlights that areas classified as levels 4 and 5 are mainly concentrated in the northwestern sector of Mount Vesuvius, in particular inside the municipalities of Sant’Anastasia, Volla, Cercola, San Sebastiano al Vesuvio, Ercolano, Portici, and Naples.