Recent Transformations in Global Life Expectancy: A Trajectory Perspective

This paper investigates recent structural changes in global life expectancy trends using breakpoint detection methods and linear deterministic trend models. Drawing on data for 242 countries from 1950 to 2024, we identify the most recent structural breaks and estimate post-break slopes ($\beta_2$), changes in slope ($\Delta \beta$), and the time since the last break ($\Delta t_{2024}$). The analysis reveals a surprising divergence: while high-income and developed countries show decelerating life expectancy trajectories, several low-income and least developed countries display evidence of recent accelerations. These findings challenge conventional assumptions of convergence and indicate the emergence of heterogeneous demographic regimes. Group comparisons by income level and economic classification confirm statistically significant differences across all key metrics. The results have broad implications for actuarial forecasting, public policy, and global health planning, suggesting that current models must account for country-specific structural dynamics. Rather than offering definitive conclusions, this study opens new questions about the drivers, sustainability, and consequences of shifting global longevity trends.