Prevalence, timing, and correlates of gender-diverse students making a social transition in public school

Social transition, a gender-affirming process in which transgender and gender-diverse youth adopt names, pronouns, and expressions aligned with their identity, has been linked to improved well-being. However, school-based transitions remain relatively rare, and prior research has largely been cross-sectional or retrospective. Using a longitudinal data set of 38,248 students from a large, ethnically diverse U.S. public-school district (2002–2020), followed from preschool through 12th grade, this study examined the prevalence, timing, and correlates of social transition among transgender and gender-diverse students. At age 4, children were assessed on cognitive, language, motor, and socioemotional development, with annual academic and attendance records collected thereafter. A total of 139 students (0.36%) socially transitioned, as indicated by a gender change in school administrative records. Transitions occurred most frequently during elementary school, with 33% by third grade and an additional 30% by fifth grade. Early transitioners demonstrated stronger preschool language, fine motor, and math skills, better social functioning, and fewer kindergarten absences. Making a social transition was not associated with ethnicity, disability status, family income, English learner status, or suspensions. Students assigned female at birth were slightly, but not significantly, more likely to transition. Social transitions often coincided with a change in school site. These findings suggest that early academic and social readiness may facilitate earlier social transitions in school. Identifying developmental precursors of school-based social transition can inform gender-affirming educational and clinical practices as support for gender-diverse youth continues to evolve.