Uncovering heterogeneous development trajectories of land cover change in high-speed rail station areas: A latent profile analysis

The impact of high-speed rail (HSR) on urban land development exhibits significant heterogeneity, complicating the efforts to promote integrated and compact growth around station areas. To systematically evaluate and explain these divergent outcomes, this study develops a multidimensional framework utilizing a “Scale-Composition-Vitality” triad. We analyze long-term land cover changes (2008–2023) across 78 HSR stations in the Yangtze River Delta region by integrating indicators of built-up land area, compactness degree, and nighttime light intensity. Employing Latent Profile Analysis (LPA), we identify four distinct development profiles: infill development, balanced coordination, greenfield development, and stagnant development. Our analysis reveals three key mechanisms driving this spatial heterogeneity. First, station construction type emerges as the strongest predictor, revealing a developmental path dependency: upgraded stations tend to foster infill patterns, whereas newly built stations face a higher risk of stagnation or inefficient expansion. Second, spatial polarization and equilibrium effects are evident along HSR corridors, shaped by the relative distance between stations and municipal centers. Third, the interaction between city-level GDP and the locational centrality index reveals a megacity dilemma, where high-performance development shifts from downtown cores to strategically designated suburban gateways. These findings offer a robust methodology and evidence-based insights for policymakers, underscoring the necessity for localized, differentiated, and context-specific HSR planning strategies.