A model of volcanic magma transport by fracturing stress mechanisms

Understanding the mechanisms of magma ascent preceding eruptions, and in particular the subvolcanic system that stores and transports magma to the surface, is of crucial relevance for hazard and risk assessment. We propose here a statistical model describing the rise of magma from the reservoir through the transport region via stress induced fracturing mechanisms of the medium. The model reproduces the general statistical properties of erupted volume, P(V), and inter-eruption time, P(t), found in catalogue data for closed conduit volcanoes. We also investigate conditional distribution (e.g., the probability, P(Vjt), to have a volume, V, erupted after a waiting time, t), which can have important practical implications.