Background: In 2001 Liou published a 5-year survival model using CFF Registry data. Aims: To evaluate its validity in predicting survival in Italian CF patients. Methods: In a retrospective study on 945 patients, the 9 variables selected by Liou were analyzed, vital status on December 2008 recorded and observed and expected deaths compared. To develop a new model, patients were randomly divided into a derivation (n = 475) and a validation sample (n = 470). Results: A significant difference was found between observed and expected deaths based on Liou's model (62 vs 94), with a 34% reduction in mortality (p < 0.05). A new model (based on FEV1, Staphylococcus aureus and Burkholderia cepacia complex infection, number of pulmonary exacerbations/year) was generated, that correctly predicted survival in the validation sample (31 observed vs 29 expected deaths, p = 0.660). Conclusions: The Liou model did not adequately predict 5-year survival in our CF population that, compared to the one in which it was originally tested, could benefit from 10. years of improvement in treatments and practice patterns. A new generated model, based on only four variables, was more accurate in predicting 5-year survival in Italian CF patients
Validation of a predictive survival model in Italian patients with cystic fibrosis / Buzzetti, R; Alicandro, G; Minicucci, L; Notarnicola, S; Furnari, Ml; Giordano, G; Lucidi, V; Montemitro, E; Raia, Valeria; Magazzù, G; Vieni, G; Quattrucci, S; Ferrazza, A; Gagliardini, R; Cirilli, N; Salvatore, D; Colombo, C.. - In: JOURNAL OF CYSTIC FIBROSIS. - ISSN 1569-1993. - ELETTRONICO. - 11:(2012), pp. 24-29.
Validation of a predictive survival model in Italian patients with cystic fibrosis.
RAIA, VALERIA;
2012
Abstract
Background: In 2001 Liou published a 5-year survival model using CFF Registry data. Aims: To evaluate its validity in predicting survival in Italian CF patients. Methods: In a retrospective study on 945 patients, the 9 variables selected by Liou were analyzed, vital status on December 2008 recorded and observed and expected deaths compared. To develop a new model, patients were randomly divided into a derivation (n = 475) and a validation sample (n = 470). Results: A significant difference was found between observed and expected deaths based on Liou's model (62 vs 94), with a 34% reduction in mortality (p < 0.05). A new model (based on FEV1, Staphylococcus aureus and Burkholderia cepacia complex infection, number of pulmonary exacerbations/year) was generated, that correctly predicted survival in the validation sample (31 observed vs 29 expected deaths, p = 0.660). Conclusions: The Liou model did not adequately predict 5-year survival in our CF population that, compared to the one in which it was originally tested, could benefit from 10. years of improvement in treatments and practice patterns. A new generated model, based on only four variables, was more accurate in predicting 5-year survival in Italian CF patientsI documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
