Evaluation of the prognostic value of impaired renal function on clinical progression in a large cohort of HIV-infected people seen for care in Italy

Whilst renal dysfunction, especially mild impairment (60<eGFR<90 ml/min), has been often described in HIV-infected population, its potential contribution to HIV evolution and risk of cerebro-cardiovascular disease (CCVD) has not been clarified. Data from HIV-1 infected patients enrolled in the Italian Cohort of Antiretroviral-Naïve (Icona) Foundation Study collected between January 2000 and February 2014 with at least two creatinine values available. eGFR (CKD-epi) and renal dysfunction defined using a priori cut-offs of 60 (severely impaired) and 90 ml/min/1.73 m2 (mildly impaired). Characteristics of patients were described after stratification in these groups and compared using chi-square test (categorical variables) or Kruskal Wallis test comparing median values. Follow-up accrued from baseline up to the date of the CCVD or AIDS related events or death or last available visit. Kaplan Meier curves were used to estimate the cumulative probability of occurrence of the events over time. Adjusted analysis was performed using a proportional hazards Cox regression model. We included 7,385 patients, observed for a median follow-up of 43 months (inter-quartile range [IQR]: 21-93 months). Over this time, 130 cerebro-cardiovascular events (including 11 deaths due to CCVD) and 311 AIDS-related events (including 45 deaths) were observed. The rate of CCVD events among patients with eGFR >90, 60-89, <60 ml/min, was 2.91 (95% CI 2.30-3.67), 4.63 (95% CI 3.51-6.11) and 11.9 (95% CI 6.19-22.85) per 1,000 PYFU respectively, with an unadjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 4.14 (95%CI 2.07-8.29) for patients with eGFR <60 ml/min and 1.58 (95%CI 1.10-2.27) for eGFR 60-89 compared to those with eGFR ≥90. Of note, these estimates are adjusted for traditional cardio-vascular risk factors (e.g. smoking, diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia). Incidence of AIDS-related events was 9.51 (95%CI 8.35-10.83), 6.04 (95%CI 4.74-7.71) and 25.0 (95%CI 15.96-39.22) per 1,000 PYFU, among patients with eGFR >90, 60-89, <60 ml/min, respectively, with an unadjusted HR of 2.49 (95%CI 1.56-3.97) for patients with eGFR <60 ml/min and 0.68 (95%CI 0.52-0.90) for eGFR 60-89. The risk of AIDS events was significantly lower in mild renal dysfunction group even after adjustment for HIV-related characteristics. Our data confirm that impaired renal function is an important risk marker for CCVD events in the HIV-population; importantly, even those with mild renal impairment (90<eGFR<60) seem to be at increased risk of cerebro-cardiovascular morbidity and mortality.