Hydrological regimes in different slope environments and implications on rainfall thresholds triggering shallow landslides

Assessing hazard of rainfall-induced shallow landslides represents a challenge for the risk management of urbanized areas for which the setting up of early warning systems, based on the reconstruction of reliable rainfall thresholds and rainfall monitoring, is a solution more practicable than the delocalization of settlements and infrastructures. Consequently, the reduction in uncertainties affecting the estimation of rainfall thresholds conditions, leading to the triggering of slope instabilities, is a fundament task to be tackled. In such a view, coupled soil hydrological monitoring and physics-based modeling approaches are presented for estimating rainfall thresholds in two different geomorphological environments prone to shallow landsliding. Based on the comparison of results achieved for silty– clayey soils characterizing Oltrepò Pavese area (northern Italy) and ash-fall pyroclastic soils mantling slopes of Sarno Mountains ridge (southern Italy), this research advances the understanding of the slope hydrological response in triggering shallow landslides. Among the principal results is the comprehension that, mainly depending on geological and geomorphological settings, geotechnical and hydrological properties of soil coverings have a fundamental control on the timing and intensity of hydrological processes leading to landslide initiation. Moreover, results obtained show how the characteristics of the soil coverings control the slope hydrological response at different time scales, making the antecedent soil hydrological conditions a not negligible factor for estimating landslide rainfall thresholds. The approaches proposed can be conceived as an adaptable tool to assess hazard to initiation of shallow rainfall-induced landslides and to implement early-warning systems from site-specific to distributed (catchment or larger) scales.