Forecasting the landslide evolution: from theory to practice

This paper proposes a new, physically based, and mathematically consistent method for predicting the evolution of existing landslides and first-failure phenomena based on slope displacement measurements. The method is the latest step in a long-term research program and, as such, uses the preliminary framework introduced in two previous papers. The first characterizes slope movements through a limited number of displacement trends, and the second analyzes their dynamic characteristics. The approach is here extended to the prediction of landslide evolution and its validity and effectiveness are tested on landslides well known in the scientific literature for the accuracy of the studies carried out and, in some cases, for the consequences they have caused. Although the results obtained so far are very encouraging, in full awareness of the relevance and complexity of the subject matter, the authors emphasize that the method should be used, in the current state of knowledge, only by experienced professionals and especially for research purposes.