Accuracy of the European Association of Urology (EAU) NMIBC 2021 scoring model in predicting progression in a large cohort of HG T1 NMIBC patients treated with BCG

Background: Recently, the European Association of Urology Guidelines Panel updated the prognostic factor risk groups model for non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) with the introduction of a new group of patients at very high risk (VHR). Furthermore, three additional clinical risk factors (i.e., age>70 years, multiple papillary tumors; tumor diameter >3 cm) were proposed. However, the new scoring model was created by analyzing data from patients who did not receive BCG intravesical therapy. Methods: This is a retrospective multicenter study analyzing data of 920 patients with HGT1 NMIBC that underwent ReTUR e following BCG intravesical therapy. Patients were stratified into risk groups according to the 2021 new EAU NMIBC prognostic factor risk groups model. This study aimed to identify variables related to disease progression in a large cohort of HGT1 NMIBC patients who underwent both Re-TURB and BCG intravesical immunotherapy. Results: Median follow-up was 51 months (IQR 41-75), according to EAU NMIBC 2021 scoring model 179 (19.5%) patients were at VHR. Progression-free survival at 5 years was 68.2% and 59.9% for the whole sample and the VHR group, respectively. At multivariable regression model size >3 cm, multifocal tumor, concomitant CIS and LVI were identified as independently associated with disease progression. Conclusions: Although patients at VHR are more likely to experience disease progression during follow-up, the European Association of Urology (EAU) NMIBC 2021 scoring model appears to be suboptimal in patients who underwent ReTUR and intravesical BCG therapy.