Rockfall source identification and trajectory analysis from UAV-based data in volcano-tectonic areas: a case study from Ischia Island, Southern Italy

Ischia (Southern Italy) is a volcanic island of the Phlegrean Volcanic District that was historically affected by multiple geological hazards, including floodings, landslides, rockfalls, and earthquakes. In this study, rockfall stability is analysed with an integrated approach aimed at investigating the rockfall source, the propagation, and the deposition areas. The case study is represented by two outcrops over a 400-m-wide cliff made of Green Tuff and located on the western area of Mt. Epomeo. They are respectively located at 280 and 420 m a.s.l., just uphill the village of Frassitelli, Forio d’Ischia, which is an area of high residential, tourist, and agricultural importance. We analysed the fracture systems of the tuff cliff to compute the kinematic analysis of the potential failure mechanisms and to perform numerical simulations of rockfall scenarios. Successively, numerical simulations of rockfall scenarios were computed based on the acquired structural information. This allowed us to identify the most hazardous scenarios based on the rock trajectories and the percentage of rock blocks affecting the urban area. The influence of the rock shape and volume on the rockfall trajectories was analysed. In the most likely scenarios, we observed that 15–25% of the rock blocks bypass the geomorphological barriers and reach the urban area, with kinetic energy values spanning between 102 and 104 kJ. Such detailed rockfall hazard analysis allowed the definition of the mitigation interventions necessary for the protection of the nearby residential area.