Systemic approach to improve safety of urban unsignalized intersections: Development and validation of a Safety Index

Methods based on crash data analysis are effective in identifying intersections with a potential for safety improvement. However, it is well recognized that crash data suffer from several shortcomings and that there are clues to safety other than crash occurrence. The systemic approach is an alternative method to address safety issues. In this approach, a transportation agency is able to identify priority locations based on the presence of risk factors rather than actual crashes. To promote wider use of the systemic safety approach, this paper aims at developing and validating a procedure to rank unsignalised urban intersections for safety improvement based on the evaluation of risk factors by road safety inspections. The procedure assesses a Safety Index (SI) that measures the safety performance of unsignalised urban intersections. The SI is formulated by combining two components of risk: the exposure of road users to road hazards (Exposure) and the risk factors, which increase the probability of involvement in crashes (Risk Index). The SI is made of two elements, one related to vehicles and one to pedestrians. Twenty-three detailed safety issues and ten general safety issues are assessed to compute the vehicle Risk Index and the pedestrian Risk Index. Safety issues were selected considering that they are common issues and that effective remedial measures exist and have already proven their effectiveness. Finally, criteria for identifying and ranking safety issues were defined. The SI has two main practical applications. High risk intersections, where safety measures that can reduce crash frequency exist, can be identified and ranked by the SI. Specific safety issues, that give more contribution to unsafety, are pointed out in order to give indication about more appropriate safety measures according to the systemic safety approach. The procedure was validated with a sample of eighty-nine urban intersections located in Orange County (Florida, U.S.). For these intersections, the SI scores, the Empirical Bayes (EB) safety estimates, and the potential for improvement (PFI) were compared. The correlation between the SI scores and the EB estimates was highly significant both for vehicles (R2 = 0.66) and pedestrians (R2 = 0.58) as well as for the total crashes (R2 = 0.68). The results from the Spearman's rank-correlation analysis provided further validation for the SI indicating that ranking from the SI and the EB estimates agree at the 99.9% confidence level for vehicles (ρs = 0.78), pedestrians (ρs = 0.93), and total (ρs = 0.93).