Multiscenario flood hazard assessment using probabilistic runoff hydrograph estimation and 2D hydrodynamic modelling

In this paper, we aim to define a procedure of flood hazard assessment applicable to large river basins in which flood events can be induced/sustained by the full basin area or by fractions of the total area as functions of the extent of the triggering precipitation event. The proposed procedure is based on a combined approach accounting for (1) the reconstruction of intensity–duration–frequency curves expressing the magnitude in terms of intensity for multiple return periods; (2) the application of the soil conservation service method for runoff estimation from a selected rainfall scenario considering some characteristics of the basin (i.e. soil type, land use/treatment, surface condition, and antecedent moisture conditions); (3) 2D hydrodynamic modelling conducted by the HEC-RAS model using runoff hydrographs as hydrological input data; (4) the reconstruction of flood hazard maps by overlaying multiple inundation maps depicting flood extent for different return periods. To account for the variability in the extent of the triggering precipitation event and the resulting input hydrograph, multiple contributing areas are considered. The procedure is tested at the archaeological site of Sybaris in southern Italy, which is periodically involved in flood events of variable magnitude. The obtained results highlight that the variable extent of the floodable area is strongly conditioned by the extent of the contributing area and return period, as expected. The archaeological site is always involved in the simulated flooding process, except for the smallest contributing area for which only a 300-year event involves this part of the site. Our findings may be useful for developing and supporting flood risk management plans in the area. The developed procedure might be easily exported and tested in other fluvial contexts in which evaluations of multiple flood hazard scenarios, due to the basin geometry and extent, are needed.