Holistic Modelling of Loss and Recovery for the Resilience Assessment to Seismic Sequences

Earthquakes typically occur in time-space clusters. Classical probabilistic seismic risk analysis, only consider the prominent magnitude earthquakes within each cluster. This implicitly corresponds to neglect that, for exposed infrastructure, the clustering behavior of seismic events may, on one hand, cause damage accumulation and prolonged business interruption and, on the other hand, may delay or disrupt the repair and recovery processes. In the paper, a Markov-chain-based model, able to describe both loss and recovery during aftershock sequences is presented. It preserves most of the benefits of the classical approach and can be extended to enable modelling of peculiar resilience features such as delay in recovery initiation.